Saturday, April 24, 2010

Gross Canadian Federal Debt, 1867-2008


Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM using CHASS, v151537 Canada; Gross federal government debt

This chart shows a lot about how Canada has evolved as a nation. I will use this chart as a starting point to analyze Canada's economic, political, military and economic history. An required next step would be to analyze other economic data such as GDP, population, labour force, trade, Consumer Price Index, and Government Revenues and Spending. A proper analysis will also require comparisons with other nations, comparisons between provinces, and a deeper look into the different eras and the corresponding role of the federal government played, and how that has affected individual freedoms. This will also require an understanding of history and politics.

A preliminary look at the federal gross debt time series, we can separate Canada's economic history into a few eras:
1. Early Nationhood (1867-1914) Characterized by little federal debt and a federal government that was not intrusive in people's lives.
2. World Wars (1914-1945) Increased government spending (and debt) to finance two world wars, growing role of the federal government including increased taxation and new forms of taxation (supposedly temporary).
3. Peace 'Dividend' (1945-1993) Emergence of the welfare state, growing federal spending (and debt), more taxation.
4. Belt Tightening (1993-2008) Cutting services and federal transfer payments to provinces, repaying some debt.
5. New Keynesian (2008-present) Massive growth in federal spending, some tax cuts.
6. Fiscal Conservatism ?

These eras will be examined in closer detail, especially the period from 1945-1993.

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